The greenhouse effect, a natural process that warms Earth's surface, is crucial for maintaining habitable temperatures. Without it, our planet would be a frigid -18°C. However, human activities have amplified this effect, leading to global warming and climate change.
Greenhouse gases like CO2, methane, and water vapor trap heat in the atmosphere. Their concentrations have increased due to fossil fuel burning, deforestation, and agriculture. This has caused Earth's average temperature to rise by 1.1°C since pre-industrial times, with more warming projected unless emissions are reduced.
The Greenhouse Effect and Earth's Temperature
Greenhouse effect and Earth's temperature
- Natural process warms Earth's surface and lower atmosphere
- Greenhouse gases in atmosphere absorb and re-emit infrared radiation emitted by Earth's surface trapping heat in lower atmosphere and warming planet (CO2, methane, water vapor)
- Without greenhouse effect, Earth's average surface temperature would be about -18°C (0°F)
- Greenhouse effect maintains Earth's current average surface temperature around 15°C (59°F) making it habitable for life as we know it
- Enhanced greenhouse effect amplifies natural greenhouse effect leading to additional warming
- Human activities have increased greenhouse gas concentrations in atmosphere (burning fossil fuels, deforestation)
Main greenhouse gases and sources
- Carbon dioxide (CO2)
- Burning fossil fuels (coal, oil, natural gas) releases CO2 into atmosphere
- Deforestation and land-use changes reduce natural carbon sinks and contribute to CO2 emissions
- Cement production involves calcination of limestone, releasing CO2 as a byproduct
- Methane (CH4)
- Agriculture (livestock digestion, rice cultivation in flooded fields) produces methane emissions
- Landfills and waste management facilities generate methane as organic waste decomposes anaerobically
- Fossil fuel production and distribution can leak methane during extraction, processing, and transport (natural gas, oil)
- Nitrous oxide (N2O)
- Agricultural practices (nitrogen-based fertilizer use, soil management) stimulate N2O production by soil bacteria
- Industrial processes (nylon production, nitric acid production) release N2O as a byproduct
- Biomass burning (wildfires, agricultural waste burning) emits N2O among other pollutants
- Water vapor (H2O)
- Evaporation from oceans, lakes, and rivers adds water vapor to atmosphere
- Transpiration from plants releases water vapor during photosynthesis
- Atmospheric water vapor concentrations increase in response to warming caused by other greenhouse gases (feedback loop)
- Ozone (O3) in lower atmosphere
- Photochemical reactions involving nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds form ozone near Earth's surface
- Ozone acts as a secondary greenhouse gas in the troposphere (ground-level ozone)
Radiative Forcing and Climate Change
Radiative forcing in climate systems
- Radiative forcing is change in net irradiance (downward minus upward) at tropopause due to change in external driver of climate change
- Measured in watts per square meter (W/m²) quantifying energy imbalance
- Positive radiative forcing leads to warming, while negative radiative forcing leads to cooling (energy input vs output)
- Greenhouse gases impose positive radiative forcing
- Absorb and re-emit more infrared radiation back to Earth's surface enhancing greenhouse effect
- Other factors contribute to radiative forcing
- Changes in solar irradiance (variations in sun's energy output)
- Volcanic eruptions exert short-term negative forcing due to reflective aerosols injected into stratosphere
- Land-use changes alter surface albedo (reflectivity) affecting energy balance
- Radiative forcing quantifies and compares influence of different factors on Earth's energy balance and temperature
- Anthropogenic factors (greenhouse gases, aerosols, land-use changes) dominate recent forcing trends
Greenhouse gases vs global temperatures
- Higher greenhouse gas concentrations lead to increased radiative forcing and warming
- Atmospheric CO2 concentrations have increased from pre-industrial levels of ~280 ppm to over 410 ppm today primarily due to human activities (burning fossil fuels, land-use changes)
- Methane, nitrous oxide, and other greenhouse gas concentrations have also risen significantly since pre-industrial times
- Earth's average surface temperature has risen by approximately 1.1°C since pre-industrial era
- Rate of warming has accelerated in recent decades with warmest years on record all occurring since 2000 (2016, 2020, 2019)
- Warming is not uniform across globe (higher latitudes and land areas warm faster than global average)
- Climate models project further warming as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise
- Amount of future warming depends on rate and magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions (different emission scenarios)
- Limiting warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above pre-industrial levels requires significant reductions in emissions to reach net-zero by mid-to-late century
- Continued high emissions lead to more severe and irreversible impacts (sea level rise, ecosystem shifts, extreme weather events)