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Business Forecasting
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📊business forecasting review

9.2 Consumer behavior models and their impact on forecasting

Citation:

Consumer behavior models are crucial for understanding how people make buying decisions. These models break down the process into stages, from recognizing a need to post-purchase evaluation. They help businesses predict and influence consumer choices.

Psychological, social, and cultural factors shape consumer behavior. Cognitive processes, motivation, and attitudes play key roles. Group dynamics, cultural norms, and socioeconomic factors also impact purchasing decisions. Understanding these influences is vital for effective marketing strategies.

Consumer Decision-Making Models

Key Stages in Consumer Decision-Making

  • Consumer decision-making process involves five main stages guides purchasing behavior
  • Problem recognition initiates when consumers identify a need or want
  • Information search follows as consumers gather data about potential solutions
  • Evaluation of alternatives occurs when consumers compare options based on criteria
  • Purchase decision happens when consumers choose a product or service to buy
  • Post-purchase behavior includes satisfaction assessment and potential repurchase intentions

Comprehensive Decision-Making Frameworks

  • Engel-Blackwell-Miniard model emphasizes the role of information processing in decision-making
    • Incorporates external influences (culture, social class, personal influences)
    • Highlights internal influences (motivation, personality, lifestyle, attitudes)
    • Considers situational factors affecting purchase decisions
  • Howard-Sheth model focuses on repeat purchasing behavior and brand loyalty
    • Distinguishes between three levels of decision-making (extensive, limited, routinized)
    • Incorporates learning theory to explain how consumers simplify decisions over time
    • Emphasizes the importance of product class and brand-specific variables
  • Nicosia model examines the relationship between firms and potential customers
    • Divided into four fields (firm's attributes to consumer attitudes, search and evaluation, act of purchase, feedback)
    • Considers how marketing messages influence consumer attitudes and behaviors
    • Highlights the cyclical nature of consumer decision-making

Simplified Consumer Behavior Model

  • Stimulus-response model provides a basic framework for understanding consumer behavior
  • Stimuli include marketing inputs (product, price, place, promotion) and environmental factors (economic, technological, political, cultural)
  • Black box represents the consumer's internal decision-making process
  • Response refers to the observable outcomes (product choice, brand choice, dealer choice, purchase timing, purchase amount)

Psychological Influences on Consumer Behavior

Cognitive Factors in Consumer Decisions

  • Cognitive dissonance occurs when consumers experience conflicting thoughts or feelings about a purchase
    • Can lead to post-purchase anxiety or regret
    • Marketers address by providing reassurance and positive reinforcement after purchase
  • Perceived risk influences consumer decision-making and information-seeking behavior
    • Types include financial, performance, physical, social, and psychological risks
    • Higher perceived risk often leads to more extensive information search and evaluation
  • Brand loyalty develops through positive experiences and emotional connections with a brand
    • Characterized by repeat purchases and resistance to competitor offerings
    • Influenced by factors such as product quality, customer service, and brand image

Individual Psychological Factors

  • Motivation drives consumer behavior by pushing individuals to satisfy needs and wants
    • Maslow's hierarchy of needs often used to understand consumer motivations
  • Perception affects how consumers interpret and respond to marketing stimuli
    • Selective attention, retention, and distortion influence information processing
  • Learning shapes consumer behavior through experience and information acquisition
    • Classical conditioning, operant conditioning, and observational learning play roles
  • Attitudes and beliefs impact product evaluations and purchase intentions
    • Formed through direct experience, information from others, and marketing efforts

Social and Cultural Influences on Consumer Behavior

Group Dynamics and Social Influences

  • Reference groups serve as points of comparison for consumers
    • Include aspirational groups (desired membership) and dissociative groups (avoided association)
    • Opinion leaders within reference groups can significantly influence consumer choices
  • Word-of-mouth communication plays a crucial role in shaping consumer opinions
    • Online reviews and social media amplify the impact of peer recommendations
  • Social roles and statuses influence purchasing decisions and brand preferences
    • Consumers often choose products that reflect or enhance their perceived social position

Cultural and Subcultural Factors

  • Cultural influences shape values, beliefs, and customs that affect consumer behavior
    • Include language, symbols, traditions, and social norms
    • Cross-cultural differences in consumer behavior require adapted marketing strategies
  • Subcultures represent distinct groups within larger cultures
    • Based on factors such as ethnicity, religion, geographic region, or shared interests
    • Targeted marketing approaches often developed for specific subcultures
  • Family life cycle stages impact consumption patterns and decision-making roles
    • Includes transitions such as marriage, parenthood, empty nest, and retirement
    • Marketers tailor products and messages to different family life cycle stages

Socioeconomic and Demographic Influences

  • Social class affects purchasing power, preferences, and consumption patterns
    • Includes factors such as income, occupation, education, and wealth
    • Different social classes may have distinct brand preferences and shopping behaviors
  • Generational cohorts exhibit shared experiences and values that influence consumer behavior
    • (Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials, Generation Z)
    • Each cohort may have unique attitudes towards brands, technology, and consumption
  • Gender roles and identities impact product choices and marketing receptiveness
    • Changing gender norms influence marketing strategies and product development
    • Gender-neutral marketing becoming more prevalent in certain product categories