7.3 Dealignment and Partisan Volatility
2 min read•july 25, 2024
Dealignment is reshaping American politics, weakening party loyalties and increasing voter independence. This trend erodes traditional two-party dominance, making elections more unpredictable and forcing parties to adapt their strategies.
Factors like declining party loyalty, rising , and contribute to dealignment. The consequences include increased , challenges for party organizations, and potential opportunities for third-party candidates to gain traction.
Understanding Dealignment and Partisan Volatility
Concept of dealignment
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- Dealignment erodes party affiliations weakening long-term loyalty shifts away from traditional two-party dominance (Democrats and Republicans)
- Voters become less attached to political parties make decisions based on short-term factors (candidate personality, current issues)
- Dealignment process occurs gradually over time reflects changing political landscape societal shifts
Factors contributing to dealignment
- Party loyalty declines as traditional identifications erode generational shifts alter political attitudes party labels lose importance in voting decisions
- Ticket-splitting increases voters choose candidates from different parties for various offices (President from one party, Senator from another)
- Independent voters rise rejecting partisan labels increasing political sophistication leads to more nuanced views
- Media landscape evolves multiple information sources challenge party narratives (social media, online news)
- within parties pushes moderate voters away from extreme positions
- Dissatisfaction with major parties grows due to perceived ineffectiveness gridlock corruption
Consequences of dealignment
- Electoral volatility increases election outcomes fluctuate more unpredictably party support becomes less stable across elections
- Party organizations face challenges mobilizing consistent voter bases adapting campaign strategies relying more on issue-based appeals
- Governance impacted by potential frequent power shifts in legislatures challenges implementing long-term policies increased importance of coalition-building
- Third parties independent candidates gain opportunities to attract disaffected voters (Ross Perot 1992, Bernie Sanders 2016)
- Partisan realignment possible as voters shift allegiances based on changing issue priorities (Southern Democrats to Republicans)
Evidence for dealignment thesis
- Party registration numbers decline traditional strongholds weaken (union households, religious groups)
- Presidential election outcomes show increased volatility swing states become less predictable
- Self-identified independent voters grow reaching historic highs in recent decades (42% in 2017 Gallup poll)
- Correlation weakens between party identification voting behavior split-ticket voting increases
- becomes more common voters less loyal to single party over lifetime
- Issue-based voting rises importance of candidate qualities increases over party affiliation
Key Terms to Review (18)
Civic disengagement: Civic disengagement refers to the decline in individuals' participation in political processes, including voting, community involvement, and civic activities. This phenomenon can lead to a lack of representation and accountability within the political system, affecting the overall health of democracy. As people become less engaged, political parties may experience greater dealignment and volatility as they struggle to connect with an increasingly apathetic electorate.
David Mayhew: David Mayhew is a prominent political scientist known for his work on the behavior of U.S. Congress members and the dynamics of political parties. His most significant contribution is his argument that members of Congress are primarily motivated by the pursuit of reelection, which shapes their actions and decisions within the legislative process. This perspective connects to broader themes of dealignment and partisan volatility by highlighting how individual political calculations influence party loyalty and voter behavior.
Dealignment theory: Dealignment theory refers to the process where voters increasingly detach themselves from established political parties, leading to a decline in party loyalty and affiliation. This phenomenon is often observed during periods of political change, where traditional party systems break down, resulting in higher levels of electoral volatility as individuals become more likely to identify as independents or support candidates outside the traditional two-party framework.
Electoral volatility: Electoral volatility refers to the degree of change in voter preferences and party support between elections, indicating a dynamic political landscape where parties can gain or lose significant amounts of support over time. This concept highlights how unpredictable voter behavior can impact party competition and polarization, contribute to dealignment, drive realignment trends, and reflect declining party loyalty and membership.
Exit Polls: Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters immediately after they leave polling places, aimed at predicting the outcome of an election and understanding voter behavior. They provide insights into how different demographic groups voted and can reveal trends in party support, helping to gauge the overall political landscape during elections. By capturing voter preferences and motivations at the moment of voting, exit polls are crucial for analyzing party competition, shifts in partisan alignment, and the impact of party identification on voting patterns.
Ideological polarization: Ideological polarization refers to the growing divide in political beliefs and values between opposing parties or groups, often leading to extreme positions and a lack of compromise. This phenomenon can result in heightened partisanship, where members of different political parties become more entrenched in their views and less willing to engage with opposing perspectives. As ideological polarization increases, it can affect political behavior, party competition, and the overall functioning of democracy.
Independent Voters: Independent voters are individuals who do not identify with or align themselves strongly with any particular political party. They play a crucial role in the political landscape, often influencing elections and party strategies as their votes can swing results in competitive races, especially in polarized environments. Their growing presence reflects broader trends in voter behavior, signaling shifts away from traditional party loyalties and contributing to ongoing changes in party competition.
John Zaller: John Zaller is a prominent political scientist known for his work on public opinion and political communication, particularly in the context of how information influences voter behavior. His research focuses on the dynamics of partisan alignment and realignment, explaining how individuals' attitudes and opinions can shift over time due to changing political environments and media influence. Zaller's theories help illuminate the concepts of dealignment and partisan volatility, highlighting how voters can become less attached to traditional party loyalties.
Media fragmentation: Media fragmentation refers to the process by which audiences are increasingly divided among a wide variety of media sources, leading to a decline in shared experiences and common narratives. This phenomenon has transformed the political landscape, making it difficult for parties to engage and unify voters around collective messages. As audiences gravitate towards specialized content that aligns with their preferences, it contributes to a growing polarization in political opinions and behaviors.
Partisan identification: Partisan identification refers to the psychological attachment or allegiance an individual has to a particular political party. This connection can significantly influence a person's political beliefs, voting behavior, and perceptions of political issues, shaping their overall worldview. It plays a critical role in understanding historical political alignments and transformations in the American political landscape, particularly during key eras of realignment and changing voter bases.
Partisan volatility: Partisan volatility refers to the degree of fluctuation in party support among voters over time, which can be influenced by various factors such as changing political issues, candidate appeal, or societal shifts. High levels of partisan volatility indicate that voters may frequently switch their allegiance between parties, reflecting a more dynamic and less predictable political landscape.
Party identification surveys: Party identification surveys are research tools used to measure individuals' affinity or loyalty to a particular political party. These surveys often assess how strongly individuals identify with their party and how this identification influences their voting behavior and political attitudes. Understanding the results of these surveys provides insights into dealignment and partisan volatility, revealing shifts in the political landscape and changes in voter loyalties over time.
Party switching: Party switching refers to the process where individuals change their political party affiliation, often in response to shifts in personal beliefs, political climate, or party alignment. This phenomenon can significantly influence electoral outcomes and the overall dynamics of political parties, especially during periods of dealignment and realignment.
Political alienation: Political alienation refers to the feeling of estrangement and disconnection individuals experience towards the political system, institutions, and parties. This sense of alienation can result in reduced political participation and disengagement, leading to a decline in trust and confidence in government entities. It often emerges during periods of dealignment and partisan volatility, where individuals may feel that their values and beliefs are not represented by any political party.
Reagan Revolution: The Reagan Revolution refers to the political and economic changes initiated during Ronald Reagan's presidency from 1981 to 1989, characterized by a shift towards conservative policies that emphasized tax cuts, deregulation, and a strong anti-communist foreign policy. This period not only reshaped the Republican Party's identity but also influenced the ideological landscape of American politics, leading to a realignment in voter priorities and party affiliations.
Tea Party Movement: The Tea Party Movement is a conservative political movement in the United States that emerged in the late 2000s, characterized by its grassroots activism, strong opposition to government spending and taxation, and promotion of a strict interpretation of the U.S. Constitution. This movement has significantly influenced Republican politics and has played a vital role in shaping contemporary political discourse around issues such as fiscal conservatism and limited government.
Ticket splitting: Ticket splitting is the practice of voters choosing candidates from different political parties for different offices during the same election. This behavior reflects a more individualized approach to voting, where preferences for specific candidates may override strict party loyalty. Ticket splitting is often associated with trends in dealignment, where traditional party affiliations weaken, leading to increased partisan volatility in electoral outcomes.
Watergate Scandal: The Watergate Scandal was a major political scandal in the United States during the early 1970s, resulting from a break-in at the Democratic National Committee headquarters and the subsequent cover-up by President Richard Nixon and his administration. This scandal not only led to Nixon's resignation but also had lasting effects on public trust in government and political parties, influencing the two-party system, contributing to dealignment, and reshaping the role of campaign financing through PACs and Super PACs.