💵Principles of Macroeconomics Unit 16 – Exchange Rates & Global Capital Flows

Key Concepts

• Exchange rate measures the value of one currency in terms of another
• Nominal exchange rate unadjusted for inflation while real exchange rate accounts for price level differences between countries
• Appreciation occurs when a currency gains value relative to another currency
  • Results in increased purchasing power for the appreciating currency
  • Makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper (Japan)
• Depreciation happens when a currency loses value compared to another currency
  • Leads to decreased purchasing power for the depreciating currency
  • Makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive (Mexico)
• Balance of payments records all financial transactions made between consumers, businesses and the government in one country with others
• Capital flows refer to the movement of money for the purpose of investment, trade or business operations
  • Inflows represent money coming into a country while outflows represent money leaving the country

Exchange Rate Basics

• Exchange rate serves as the price of one currency in terms of another
• Determined by the market forces of supply and demand in a floating exchange rate system
  • Increased demand for a currency causes it to appreciate while decreased demand leads to depreciation
• In a fixed exchange rate system, rates are set and maintained by the government through central bank intervention
• Pegged exchange rate system involves fixing the exchange rate to another currency or basket of currencies
• Managed float system has no fixed rate but the central bank may intervene to influence the rate
• Convertibility refers to the ease with which a currency can be traded for another
  • Fully convertible currencies can be freely traded while partially convertible currencies have some restrictions
• Black market emerges when there are restrictions on foreign exchange transactions and an unofficial market develops (Venezuela)

Types of Exchange Rate Systems

• Floating exchange rate system allows the value of a currency to be determined by market forces without government intervention
  • Advantages include automatic adjustment to economic conditions and greater flexibility for monetary policy
  • Disadvantages include volatility and uncertainty for businesses and investors
• Fixed exchange rate system involves the government setting and maintaining the value of its currency against another
  • Advantages include stability and predictability for businesses and investors
  • Disadvantages include the need for large foreign exchange reserves and the loss of independent monetary policy
• Managed float system combines aspects of both fixed and floating systems
  • Government may intervene in foreign exchange markets to influence the direction or speed of currency movements
• Pegged exchange rate system fixes the value of a currency to another currency or basket of currencies
  • Commonly used by developing countries to provide stability (Belize pegs to the US dollar)
• Crawling peg system allows for gradual adjustments to the exchange rate over time
  • Helps to avoid large and sudden currency fluctuations (Costa Rica)
• Dollarization occurs when a country uses the US dollar as its official currency
  • Provides stability but results in a complete loss of monetary policy control (Ecuador)

Factors Influencing Exchange Rates

• Interest rates influence exchange rates by affecting the demand for a currency
  • Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand and causing appreciation
  • Lower interest rates tend to decrease demand and cause depreciation
• Inflation rates impact exchange rates through their effect on purchasing power
  • Higher inflation reduces the value of a currency over time, leading to depreciation
  • Lower inflation helps maintain the value of a currency, contributing to appreciation
• Economic growth and stability affect investor and business confidence in a currency
  • Strong economic performance and political stability increase demand, leading to appreciation
  • Weak economic performance or instability decrease demand, contributing to depreciation
• Government debt levels influence perceptions of a country's financial stability and creditworthiness
  • High debt levels may decrease confidence and demand, leading to depreciation
• Balance of trade impacts currency demand through the flow of imports and exports
  • A trade surplus increases demand for a country's currency, contributing to appreciation
  • A trade deficit decreases demand for a country's currency, leading to depreciation
• Political factors such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical events can impact investor confidence and currency demand (Brexit)

Global Capital Flows Explained

• Capital flows refer to the movement of money across borders for investment, trade, or business purposes
• Foreign direct investment (FDI) involves establishing a lasting interest in a foreign enterprise
  • Inward FDI brings foreign capital into a country, increasing demand for its currency
  • Outward FDI represents domestic capital leaving the country, decreasing currency demand
• Portfolio investment involves the purchase of foreign securities such as stocks and bonds
  • Capital inflows from foreign investors increase demand for the domestic currency
  • Capital outflows from domestic investors decrease demand for the domestic currency
• Short-term capital flows, such as bank loans or trade credits, can be more volatile than long-term flows
  • Sudden inflows can lead to rapid currency appreciation and asset price bubbles
  • Sudden outflows can result in currency depreciation and financial instability (Asian Financial Crisis)
• Push factors, such as low interest rates or economic instability in the source country, can drive capital outflows
• Pull factors, such as high interest rates or strong economic growth in the recipient country, can attract capital inflows
• Capital controls are measures implemented by governments to regulate the flow of capital across borders
  • Can be used to prevent excessive inflows or outflows and maintain financial stability (China)

Balance of Payments

• The balance of payments (BOP) records all financial transactions between a country and the rest of the world over a given period
• Consists of the current account, capital account, and financial account
• Current account includes trade in goods and services, primary income, and secondary income
  • A current account surplus indicates a country is a net lender to the rest of the world
  • A current account deficit indicates a country is a net borrower from the rest of the world
• Capital account includes capital transfers and the acquisition or disposal of non-produced, non-financial assets
• Financial account records transactions involving financial assets and liabilities
  • Positive net financial account balance indicates a country is a net borrower from the rest of the world
  • Negative net financial account balance indicates a country is a net lender to the rest of the world
• BOP should balance, meaning the sum of the current, capital, and financial accounts should equal zero
  • Statistical discrepancies may arise due to measurement errors or omissions
• Imbalances in the BOP can lead to changes in foreign exchange reserves or the exchange rate
  • A BOP surplus may result in an increase in reserves or currency appreciation
  • A BOP deficit may result in a decrease in reserves or currency depreciation

Exchange Rates and International Trade

• Exchange rates directly impact the price of imports and exports, influencing international trade flows
• Currency appreciation makes exports more expensive and imports cheaper
  • Can lead to a decrease in export competitiveness and an increase in import demand
  • May result in a deterioration of the trade balance (US dollar appreciation)
• Currency depreciation makes exports cheaper and imports more expensive
  • Can boost export competitiveness and decrease import demand
  • May lead to an improvement in the trade balance (Chinese yuan depreciation)
• The Marshall-Lerner condition states that currency depreciation will improve the trade balance if the sum of the absolute values of the export and import demand elasticities is greater than one
• J-curve effect describes the delayed impact of currency depreciation on the trade balance
  • Initially, the trade balance may worsen due to the inelasticity of export and import demand in the short run
  • Over time, as demand adjusts, the trade balance improves
• Exchange rate volatility can create uncertainty for businesses engaged in international trade
  • Hedging techniques, such as forward contracts or currency options, can be used to manage exchange rate risk
• Trade policies, such as tariffs or quotas, can impact exchange rates by altering the demand for imports and exports
  • Tariffs on imports may lead to a decrease in demand for foreign currency, causing appreciation
  • Subsidies for exports may increase demand for the domestic currency, leading to appreciation

Policy Implications and Interventions

• Monetary policy actions, such as changes in interest rates, can influence exchange rates
  • Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign capital, leading to currency appreciation
  • Lower interest rates may discourage foreign investment, resulting in currency depreciation
• Central bank intervention in foreign exchange markets can be used to manage exchange rates
  • Direct intervention involves buying or selling foreign currency reserves to influence the exchange rate
  • Indirect intervention includes policies that affect interest rates or money supply, which in turn impact exchange rates
• Capital controls can be implemented to regulate the flow of capital and manage exchange rate pressures
  • Inflow controls aim to prevent excessive capital inflows and currency appreciation (Brazil)
  • Outflow controls seek to prevent capital flight and currency depreciation (Malaysia)
• Exchange rate policy coordination among countries can help to minimize currency fluctuations and promote stability
  • International agreements, such as the Plaza Accord or the Louvre Accord, have been used to manage exchange rates
• Macroprudential policies can be employed to mitigate the risks associated with capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations
  • Examples include reserve requirements, limits on foreign currency borrowing, and countercyclical capital buffers
• Structural reforms, such as improving productivity or diversifying the economy, can help to enhance competitiveness and reduce vulnerability to exchange rate shocks
  • Policies that promote innovation, education, and infrastructure development can contribute to long-term economic resilience

Real-World Examples and Case Studies

• The Asian Financial Crisis (1997-1998) highlighted the risks of sudden capital outflows and currency depreciation
  • Affected countries, such as Thailand and South Korea, experienced sharp currency declines and economic contractions
  • The crisis led to increased focus on capital flow management and exchange rate flexibility
• The European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) crisis (1992-1993) demonstrated the challenges of maintaining fixed exchange rates
  • Speculative attacks on currencies, such as the British pound and Italian lira, forced countries to abandon the ERM
  • The crisis contributed to the development of the euro as a common currency for the European Union
• China's managed exchange rate system has been a source of international debate and tension
  • The Chinese government has been accused of undervaluing the yuan to boost export competitiveness
  • Gradual reforms have been implemented to increase exchange rate flexibility and promote international use of the yuan
• The Swiss franc's appreciation following the global financial crisis (2008-2009) posed challenges for Switzerland's export-oriented economy
  • The Swiss National Bank introduced a minimum exchange rate policy to prevent further appreciation against the euro
  • The policy was abandoned in 2015, leading to a sharp appreciation of the franc and negative interest rates
• Venezuela's currency crisis and hyperinflation demonstrate the consequences of mismanaged exchange rate policies
  • The government's fixed exchange rate system and money printing led to severe currency depreciation and goods shortages
  • The crisis has resulted in widespread poverty, emigration, and social unrest
• Japan's persistent current account surpluses and the yen's appreciation have impacted its export-dependent economy
  • Monetary easing and fiscal stimulus have been used to combat deflationary pressures and support economic growth
  • The Japanese government has intervened in foreign exchange markets to manage the yen's value