13.4 Impact on regional stability and international relations
4 min read•july 23, 2024
The has far-reaching consequences for regional stability and . From exacerbating to fueling , this conflict shapes the Middle East's geopolitical landscape and complicates international security efforts.
Despite entrenched mistrust and political constraints, there's potential for rapprochement. , , and offer opportunities for dialogue. International pressure and incentives could pave the way for gradual normalization of relations between these key regional powers.
Impact on Regional Stability and International Relations
Consequences of Iran-Saudi rivalry
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- Increased sectarian tensions
- exacerbated by proxy conflicts in countries like , , and
- Heightened risk of communal violence and civil unrest in nations with mixed Sunni-Shia populations (Lebanon, Bahrain)
- Proxy wars and regional conflicts
- Yemen: Houthis receive military support from Iran while Yemeni government backed by Saudi Arabia
- Syria: Assad regime propped up by Iranian forces while opposition groups receive funding and weapons from Saudi Arabia
- Iraq: Shia-dominated government closely aligned with Iran while Sunni insurgents have received support from Saudi Arabia
- and
- Both countries investing heavily in military capabilities, including advanced weapons systems (ballistic missiles, fighter jets)
- Increased risk of direct confrontation and escalation, potentially leading to a wider regional war
- Economic and implications
- Disruption of oil and gas production and transportation in the Persian Gulf due to potential attacks on infrastructure
- Instability affecting global energy markets and prices, as the region accounts for a significant share of world oil supplies
Implications for global diplomacy
- Polarization of the
- Countries forced to choose sides or maintain neutrality in the rivalry, complicating diplomatic relations
- Diplomatic challenges in like the and the
- Complication of global security initiatives
- Difficulty in achieving consensus on issues like and due to competing interests
- Rivalry hindering cooperation on shared challenges such as defeating and addressing climate change
- Impact on great power dynamics
- U.S. balancing act between Saudi Arabia, a traditional ally, and Iran, especially after the nuclear deal ()
- and exploiting the rivalry to expand their influence in the region through arms sales and economic deals
- Strain on and norms
- Undermining of the authority and effectiveness of the UN and other multilateral bodies in resolving conflicts
- Erosion of international law and as both sides engage in violations and abuses
Challenges in conflict resolution
- Lack of
- No formal diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, making direct negotiations difficult
- Reliance on intermediaries and back-channel negotiations, which can be unreliable and slow
- Entrenched mistrust and animosity
- Long history of ideological and geopolitical rivalry dating back to the in 1979
- Mutual demonization and propaganda portraying the other side as an existential threat
-
- Hardliners in both countries opposing rapprochement and viewing compromise as weakness
- Public opinion and nationalist sentiment limiting room for compromise and concessions
- Potential for
- Incremental steps to reduce tensions such as prisoner exchanges and humanitarian cooperation
- Engagement in multilateral forums and regional initiatives to build trust and find common ground
- and international support
- Role of neutral countries like and in facilitating dialogue and acting as go-betweens
- International community providing incentives and guarantees for de-escalation, such as sanctions relief
Potential for Iran-Saudi rapprochement
- Shared economic interests
- Both countries heavily dependent on oil exports and vulnerable to market fluctuations and price shocks
- Potential for cooperation in stabilizing energy prices and ensuring supply security through
- Evolving regional dynamics
- Common threats from non-state actors and extremist groups like ISIS and
- Shifting alliances and partnerships in the Middle East, such as the between Israel and Arab states
- Generational change and
- Emergence of younger, more pragmatic leaders in both countries open to new approaches
- Opportunity for a fresh start and a break from the past animosities under new administrations
- International pressure and incentives
- Global powers like the U.S., EU, and China encouraging de-escalation and dialogue to stabilize the region
- Economic and diplomatic rewards for progress towards normalization, such as investment deals and security guarantees
- Precedent for reconciliation
- Historical examples of rapprochement between rival states, such as the U.S. and China in the 1970s
- Potential for incremental confidence-building measures and gradual normalization of relations over time
Key Terms to Review (40)
Abraham Accords: The Abraham Accords are a series of agreements that were brokered by the United States in 2020, normalizing relations between Israel and several Arab nations, primarily the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. These agreements marked a significant shift in Middle Eastern diplomacy, as they represented the first time in decades that Arab states officially recognized Israel, leading to enhanced economic, diplomatic, and security cooperation in the region.
Al-Qaeda: Al-Qaeda is a militant Islamist organization founded by Osama bin Laden in the late 1980s, known for carrying out terrorist attacks against various targets, primarily in the West and the Middle East. The group's ideology promotes jihad against what it perceives as enemies of Islam, influencing both regional and global politics through its acts of violence and the establishment of networks that inspire other extremist movements.
Arms race: An arms race is a competitive buildup of military capabilities between two or more states, often involving the enhancement of weapons, technology, and military resources. This competition usually stems from perceived threats, leading to an escalation in armaments as nations strive to achieve or maintain superiority over their rivals. Such dynamics can significantly affect regional stability and international relations, as nations may become increasingly distrustful and prone to conflict.
China: China is a vast country in East Asia, known for its rich history, cultural heritage, and significant economic growth. As one of the world's oldest civilizations, it plays a crucial role in global affairs, impacting regional stability and international relations through its economic influence, military presence, and diplomatic strategies.
Confidence-building measures: Confidence-building measures (CBMs) are actions taken to enhance trust and reduce the risk of conflict between parties, particularly in politically sensitive or militarized environments. They often involve transparency, communication, and verification mechanisms aimed at fostering mutual understanding and cooperation. CBMs play a crucial role in major peace initiatives and can significantly impact regional stability and international relations by decreasing tensions and encouraging dialogue.
Conflict Resolution: Conflict resolution refers to the methods and processes involved in facilitating the peaceful ending of conflict and retribution. It involves understanding the underlying causes of a conflict, effective communication, negotiation strategies, and finding solutions that are acceptable to all parties involved. In the context of regional stability and international relations, conflict resolution plays a critical role in preventing escalation, fostering cooperation, and ensuring a sustainable peace.
Counterterrorism: Counterterrorism refers to the strategies and measures employed by governments and organizations to prevent, deter, and respond to terrorism. This involves a combination of military actions, intelligence operations, law enforcement, and diplomatic efforts aimed at dismantling terrorist networks and reducing the threat of future attacks.
Direct communication channels: Direct communication channels refer to the unmediated forms of interaction between states, organizations, or individuals that allow for open and immediate dialogue. These channels can enhance transparency and trust, leading to more effective collaboration in addressing regional issues, conflicts, and international relations.
Domestic political constraints: Domestic political constraints refer to the internal limitations and pressures that a government faces from its political environment, including public opinion, political parties, and interest groups. These constraints can significantly influence a government’s foreign policy decisions and overall political stability, as leaders must navigate competing interests and demands within their own country.
Economic security: Economic security refers to the assurance that individuals, communities, and nations have stable income or resources to support a decent standard of living. It encompasses access to employment, reliable income, and the ability to meet basic needs, which are crucial for maintaining stability in both regional and international contexts.
Energy security: Energy security refers to the reliable availability of energy resources at an affordable price, ensuring that a nation can access energy to meet its needs without disruption. This concept is critical in regions rich in energy resources, influencing economic growth, political relations, and overall stability.
Evolving regional dynamics: Evolving regional dynamics refer to the shifting relationships, alliances, and power balances among countries in a specific geographical area, influenced by historical, political, economic, and social factors. These dynamics are critical for understanding how countries in a region interact with each other and how external actors influence these relationships, ultimately impacting stability and international relations.
Generational Change: Generational change refers to the shift in attitudes, values, and behaviors that occurs as new generations come of age and begin to influence society and politics. This phenomenon often leads to transformations in governance, social movements, and public policy, affecting regional stability and international relations as different age groups bring diverse perspectives and priorities.
Geopolitics: Geopolitics refers to the study of the effects of geography on international politics and international relations. It encompasses how geographic factors such as location, resources, and demographics influence political decisions, power dynamics, and conflicts among nations. This concept is crucial in understanding how states navigate their interactions with one another, especially in regions with strategic significance and diverse interests.
Global diplomacy: Global diplomacy refers to the process through which countries and international organizations engage with one another to manage relations, negotiate agreements, and resolve conflicts. This practice encompasses a wide array of activities including negotiations, treaties, and international agreements that seek to promote peace, security, and cooperation among nations. It is essential for maintaining regional stability and influencing international relations in a complex and interconnected world.
Human rights norms: Human rights norms are standards and principles that dictate the basic rights and freedoms to which all individuals are entitled, regardless of their nationality, gender, ethnicity, or religion. These norms serve as the foundation for international human rights law and influence how countries interact with each other, often impacting regional stability and international relations as states either uphold or violate these standards.
International community: The international community refers to the collective group of countries and organizations that engage with one another on global issues, fostering cooperation, dialogue, and mutual understanding. This term emphasizes the interconnectedness of nations, suggesting that actions taken by one state can have significant implications for others, especially in terms of regional stability and international relations.
International Institutions: International institutions are formal organizations and systems of rules that facilitate cooperation and coordination among states and other actors in the global arena. They play a crucial role in shaping international relations, providing frameworks for dialogue, conflict resolution, and the establishment of norms that influence regional stability and diplomatic interactions.
Iran-Saudi Rivalry: The Iran-Saudi rivalry refers to the ongoing political, ideological, and military competition between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which has significantly shaped regional dynamics in the Middle East. Rooted in their contrasting religious ideologies—Shiite Islam in Iran and Sunni Islam in Saudi Arabia—this rivalry extends to various spheres, including proxy conflicts in countries like Syria and Yemen, as well as competition for influence over other Muslim-majority nations. This conflict impacts broader geopolitical relationships, particularly involving major powers like the United States and Russia.
Iranian Revolution: The Iranian Revolution, also known as the Islamic Revolution, was a popular uprising in 1979 that led to the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy and the establishment of an Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini. This revolution marked a significant turning point in Iran’s history, influencing the rise of political Islam, reshaping U.S. foreign policy in the region, and altering the dynamics of international relations in the Middle East.
Iraq: Iraq is a country in Western Asia, bordered by Turkey, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Syria. It has a rich historical heritage, being home to ancient civilizations such as Mesopotamia, and plays a significant role in contemporary geopolitics due to its strategic location and vast oil reserves. The country's political landscape is heavily influenced by sectarian divisions and the application of Sharia law, impacting both regional stability and international relations.
ISIS: ISIS, or the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, is a militant group that emerged in the early 2000s and gained global notoriety in the 2010s for its extreme interpretation of Islam and brutal tactics. Its rise significantly influenced regional politics, state dynamics, and international relations, especially in the Middle East.
JCPOA: The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is a landmark agreement reached in 2015 between Iran and six world powers, including the U.S., U.K., France, Russia, China, and Germany, aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. This agreement was designed to ensure that Iran's nuclear activities would remain peaceful and to provide a framework for monitoring compliance, impacting regional stability and international relations significantly.
Kuwait: Kuwait is a small, oil-rich nation located in the Arabian Peninsula, bordered by Iraq and Saudi Arabia. It has a unique political system that blends elements of monarchy with parliamentary democracy, which influences its legal framework, economy, and role in regional politics.
Leadership Transitions: Leadership transitions refer to the process of changing political leaders in a state, which can occur through various means such as elections, coups, or the death of a leader. These transitions often significantly influence regional stability and international relations, as they can lead to shifts in governance, policy direction, and power dynamics both domestically and globally.
Military buildup: Military buildup refers to the process of increasing a country's military capabilities through the expansion of its armed forces, enhancement of weaponry, and fortification of military infrastructure. This increase in military capacity often aims to assert national strength, deter potential adversaries, or prepare for conflict, and can significantly influence regional stability and international relations.
Multilateral forums: Multilateral forums are platforms where multiple countries come together to discuss, negotiate, and cooperate on various international issues. These gatherings are crucial for fostering dialogue, establishing norms, and promoting collective decision-making on matters such as security, trade, and environmental concerns, which can greatly influence regional stability and international relations.
Non-proliferation: Non-proliferation refers to efforts aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons and their associated technology. This concept is crucial in maintaining global security and stability, especially in regions where tensions exist, as the potential for nuclear escalation poses significant risks to international relations and peace. The non-proliferation regime includes treaties and agreements designed to promote disarmament and ensure that nuclear technology is used solely for peaceful purposes.
Oman: Oman is a country located on the southeastern coast of the Arabian Peninsula, known for its rich history, diverse culture, and strategic geographic position. It plays a significant role in regional stability and international relations due to its diplomatic neutrality, economic resources, and connections to global trade routes.
OPEC+: OPEC+ refers to the coalition of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other oil-producing nations, including Russia and several former Soviet states, that work together to manage oil production and stabilize oil prices. This alliance has significant implications for regional stability and international relations, as it influences global energy markets and the geopolitical dynamics surrounding oil resources.
Organization of Islamic Cooperation: The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) is an international organization founded in 1969, consisting of 57 member states, aimed at promoting Muslim solidarity and cooperation on social, economic, political, and cultural issues. The OIC plays a significant role in addressing the challenges faced by Muslim-majority countries and influencing international relations within the context of global politics.
Proxy wars: Proxy wars are conflicts where two opposing countries or parties support combatants that serve their interests instead of directly engaging in military action against each other. These wars often arise in regions where global powers seek to exert influence without the risks of direct confrontation, affecting both regional stability and international relations by creating tensions and power vacuums.
Russia: Russia is the largest country in the world, spanning Eastern Europe and Northern Asia. It has a significant influence on global politics, particularly in the context of regional stability and international relations, often acting as a major player in conflicts and diplomacy involving neighboring states.
Sectarian tensions: Sectarian tensions refer to conflicts and divisions arising between different religious or sectarian groups, often leading to violence and instability. In the context of the Middle East, these tensions are particularly prominent between Sunni and Shia Muslims, deeply influencing geopolitical dynamics and internal politics in various countries, affecting relationships among regional powers, and shaping prospects for cooperation and conflict resolution.
Shared economic interests: Shared economic interests refer to the mutual economic goals and benefits that countries or groups of countries pursue to enhance their economic stability and growth. These interests often lead to increased cooperation, trade agreements, and diplomatic relations as nations recognize the advantages of collaboration in addressing economic challenges, promoting regional stability, and fostering international relations.
Sunni-Shia Divide: The Sunni-Shia divide refers to the historical and theological split within Islam between the Sunni and Shia branches, primarily stemming from a disagreement over the rightful succession of leadership after the Prophet Muhammad's death in 632 CE. This divide has significant implications for regional politics, as it influences sectarian identities, conflicts, and alliances across the Middle East, impacting both regional stability and international relations.
Syria: Syria is a country in the Middle East known for its rich history and cultural heritage, which has been significantly impacted by civil war and geopolitical tensions since 2011. The ongoing conflict has not only led to a humanitarian crisis but has also destabilized the region and reshaped international relations as various global powers intervene for their interests. The situation in Syria serves as a critical case study of how internal strife can influence broader regional dynamics and provoke responses from neighboring nations and global actors.
Third-party mediation: Third-party mediation is a process in which an impartial individual or group assists conflicting parties in reaching a resolution or agreement. This method is often employed to facilitate dialogue and negotiations, helping to de-escalate tensions and foster understanding between conflicting sides. The role of the mediator is crucial in promoting trust and finding common ground, which can significantly impact regional stability and international relations.
United Nations: The United Nations (UN) is an international organization founded in 1945, aimed at promoting peace, security, and cooperation among countries. It plays a significant role in addressing global issues and conflicts, facilitating dialogue between nations, and providing humanitarian aid, which directly relates to various regional dynamics.
Yemen: Yemen is a country located at the southern tip of the Arabian Peninsula, known for its rich history, diverse culture, and ongoing conflicts. The situation in Yemen has significant implications for regional stability and international relations, particularly given its strategic location near key maritime trade routes and its involvement in broader geopolitical rivalries.