🐪Contemporary Middle East Politics Unit 13 – Iran-Saudi Arabia Geopolitical Rivalry

Historical Context

• Iran and Saudi Arabia have a long history of political, religious, and ideological differences that have shaped their rivalry
• The 1979 Iranian Revolution marked a turning point in Iran-Saudi relations, as Iran transformed into an Islamic republic and challenged Saudi Arabia's religious leadership in the Muslim world
• Sectarian divisions between Iran's Shia majority and Saudi Arabia's Sunni majority have fueled tensions and proxy conflicts across the Middle East
• The Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988) saw Saudi Arabia support Iraq against Iran, further straining relations between the two countries
• The fall of Saddam Hussein's regime in Iraq in 2003 altered the regional balance of power, with Iran gaining influence in Iraq and alarming Saudi Arabia
• Historical disputes over the hajj pilgrimage and the treatment of Shia minorities in Saudi Arabia have contributed to the ongoing rivalry

Key Players and Interests

• Iran seeks to expand its regional influence, challenge Saudi Arabia's dominance, and export its revolutionary ideology
• Saudi Arabia aims to contain Iran's influence, maintain its leadership role in the Arab and Muslim world, and protect its security interests
• The United States has been a key ally of Saudi Arabia and has sought to counter Iran's influence in the region
• Israel shares Saudi Arabia's concerns about Iran's nuclear program and regional ambitions, leading to a tacit alignment between the two countries
• Russia has maintained ties with both Iran and Saudi Arabia, seeking to balance its interests and influence in the Middle East
• Other regional players, such as Turkey, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates, have aligned with either Iran or Saudi Arabia based on their own interests and rivalries

Ideological and Religious Factors

• The Sunni-Shia divide is a central factor in the Iran-Saudi rivalry, with both countries claiming leadership of their respective branches of Islam
• Iran's Islamic revolutionary ideology challenges the legitimacy of Saudi Arabia's monarchy and its claim to be the custodian of Islam's holiest sites (Mecca and Medina)
• Saudi Arabia's Wahhabi interpretation of Islam, which emphasizes strict adherence to Islamic law and opposes Shia Islam, has influenced its policies towards Iran and Shia populations in the region
• The rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia has taken on a religious dimension, with both countries supporting their respective sectarian groups in regional conflicts
• Iran has sought to mobilize Shia populations in the Middle East, while Saudi Arabia has supported Sunni groups to counter Iran's influence

Economic Competition

• Iran and Saudi Arabia are both major oil producers and have competed for market share and influence within OPEC
• The 2014-2016 oil price slump, driven in part by Saudi Arabia's decision to maintain high production levels, put pressure on Iran's economy and heightened tensions between the two countries
• Iran's efforts to attract foreign investment and reintegrate into the global economy following the 2015 nuclear deal have been viewed as a threat by Saudi Arabia
• Saudi Arabia has sought to diversify its economy and reduce its dependence on oil through initiatives such as Vision 2030, in part to counter Iran's economic influence
• The two countries have competed for influence in the energy markets of Asia, particularly in China and India

Proxy Conflicts and Regional Influence

• The Iran-Saudi rivalry has manifested in proxy conflicts across the Middle East, including in Syria, Yemen, Lebanon, and Iraq
• In Syria, Iran has supported the Assad regime, while Saudi Arabia has backed opposition groups, leading to a prolonged and devastating civil war
• In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has led a military intervention against the Iran-aligned Houthi rebels, resulting in a humanitarian crisis and a complex geopolitical standoff
  • The conflict in Yemen has been characterized by the use of ballistic missiles and drone attacks, with the Houthis targeting Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia conducting airstrikes in Yemen
• In Lebanon, Iran has supported the Shia militant group Hezbollah, while Saudi Arabia has backed Sunni political factions, contributing to political instability and sectarian tensions
• In Iraq, Iran has gained significant influence through its support of Shia militias and political parties, while Saudi Arabia has sought to engage with Iraqi leaders to counter Iran's influence

Diplomatic Relations and Negotiations

• Diplomatic relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been strained for decades, with the two countries often engaging in hostile rhetoric and accusing each other of destabilizing the region
• In 2016, Saudi Arabia severed diplomatic ties with Iran after Iranian protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran following the execution of a prominent Shia cleric in Saudi Arabia
• Efforts to mediate between Iran and Saudi Arabia have been undertaken by various actors, including Kuwait, Oman, and Pakistan, but have yielded limited results
• The United States has sought to balance its relations with both countries, engaging in diplomacy and applying pressure on Iran while maintaining its strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia
• The 2015 Iran nuclear deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was opposed by Saudi Arabia, which viewed it as a potential threat to its security and regional influence

Impact on Regional Stability

• The Iran-Saudi rivalry has contributed to regional instability, sectarian tensions, and the proliferation of non-state actors and militant groups
• The proxy conflicts fueled by the rivalry have resulted in widespread violence, displacement, and humanitarian crises, particularly in Syria and Yemen
• The rivalry has hindered efforts to resolve regional conflicts and has complicated international diplomacy and peace negotiations
• The tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia have also had economic consequences, affecting oil prices, trade, and investment in the region
• The rivalry has exacerbated divisions within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), with some member states aligning more closely with Saudi Arabia and others seeking to maintain ties with Iran

Recent Developments and Future Outlook

• In 2019, a series of incidents in the Gulf, including attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities, heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and raised concerns about a potential military confrontation
• The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on both countries, with Iran being one of the hardest-hit countries in the region and Saudi Arabia facing economic challenges due to the decline in oil prices
• The Biden administration in the United States has signaled a shift in its approach to Iran and Saudi Arabia, seeking to re-engage with Iran on the nuclear issue while reassessing its relationship with Saudi Arabia
• The ongoing conflicts in Syria and Yemen, as well as the political instability in Lebanon and Iraq, continue to be shaped by the Iran-Saudi rivalry and will likely remain key arenas of competition
• The future of the Iran-Saudi rivalry will depend on a range of factors, including domestic political developments in both countries, the role of external actors, and the broader geopolitical landscape of the Middle East
  • Efforts to de-escalate tensions and promote dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia will be crucial for regional stability and security
  • The international community, particularly the United Nations and regional organizations, will play a key role in mediating conflicts and promoting diplomatic solutions