🥇International Economics Unit 7 – Exchange Rate Systems

What's This Unit All About?

• Explores the different systems countries use to manage their currency exchange rates
• Examines how exchange rates are determined under various systems
• Analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of fixed, floating, and managed exchange rate systems
• Investigates the economic implications of exchange rate fluctuations on international trade and investment
• Discusses the role of central banks and governments in managing exchange rates
• Considers the impact of exchange rate policies on domestic and global economic stability
• Highlights real-world examples and case studies to illustrate the practical applications of exchange rate systems

Key Concepts and Definitions

• Exchange rate: the price of one currency in terms of another currency
• Fixed exchange rate: a system where the value of a currency is pegged to another currency or a basket of currencies
  • Requires central bank intervention to maintain the fixed rate
• Floating exchange rate: a system where the value of a currency is determined by market forces of supply and demand
  • Also known as a flexible exchange rate system
• Managed float: a system where the exchange rate is largely determined by market forces, but the central bank intervenes to influence the rate
• Appreciation: an increase in the value of a currency relative to other currencies
• Depreciation: a decrease in the value of a currency relative to other currencies
• Devaluation: a deliberate downward adjustment of a currency's value under a fixed exchange rate system
• Revaluation: a deliberate upward adjustment of a currency's value under a fixed exchange rate system

Types of Exchange Rate Systems

• Fixed exchange rate system: currencies are pegged to another currency or a basket of currencies at a predetermined rate
  • Requires central bank intervention to maintain the fixed rate through buying or selling foreign currencies
• Floating exchange rate system: exchange rates are determined by market forces of supply and demand without central bank intervention
  • Rates fluctuate continuously based on economic fundamentals and market sentiment
• Managed float system: a hybrid of fixed and floating systems where the central bank intervenes to influence the exchange rate
  • Allows for some market-determined fluctuations within a targeted range
• Pegged exchange rate system: a currency is fixed to another currency or a basket of currencies, often with a narrow band of allowed fluctuations
• Crawling peg: a system where the exchange rate is adjusted gradually over time, typically to account for differences in inflation rates
• Currency board: a strict form of a fixed exchange rate system where the domestic currency is backed by a foreign reserve currency at a fixed rate

How Exchange Rates are Determined

• Under a floating exchange rate system, rates are determined by market forces of supply and demand
  • Factors influencing demand include interest rates, inflation, economic growth, and political stability
  • Factors influencing supply include trade balances, capital flows, and central bank interventions
• In a fixed exchange rate system, the central bank sets the exchange rate and intervenes to maintain it
  • The central bank buys or sells foreign currencies to keep the exchange rate at the predetermined level
• Managed float systems combine elements of market-determined rates and central bank intervention
  • The central bank may set a target range for the exchange rate and intervene when the rate moves outside the range
• Interest rate differentials between countries can influence exchange rates by affecting capital flows
  • Higher interest rates tend to attract foreign investment, increasing demand for the domestic currency and causing appreciation
• Purchasing power parity (PPP) theory suggests that exchange rates should adjust to equalize the prices of goods and services across countries
  • Deviations from PPP can indicate overvaluation or undervaluation of a currency

Pros and Cons of Different Systems

• Fixed exchange rate system:
  • Pros: provides stability and predictability for international trade and investment, reduces currency risk
  • Cons: requires large foreign currency reserves, limits monetary policy autonomy, can lead to overvaluation or undervaluation of the currency
• Floating exchange rate system:
  • Pros: allows for automatic adjustment to economic shocks, provides monetary policy autonomy, reduces the need for large foreign currency reserves
  • Cons: can be volatile and unpredictable, may discourage international trade and investment due to currency risk
• Managed float system:
  • Pros: allows for some market-determined flexibility while providing a degree of stability through central bank intervention
  • Cons: can be difficult to maintain, requires significant foreign currency reserves, may send mixed signals to market participants
• Pegged exchange rate system:
  • Pros: provides stability and predictability for trade with the pegged currency, can help control inflation by importing monetary policy from the anchor currency
  • Cons: limits monetary policy autonomy, can lead to overvaluation or undervaluation of the currency, requires large foreign currency reserves
• Currency board:
  • Pros: provides a high degree of credibility and stability, can help control inflation
  • Cons: requires significant foreign currency reserves, limits monetary policy autonomy, can be difficult to exit without causing economic disruption

Real-World Examples and Case Studies

• The European Union's Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) is an example of a fixed exchange rate system
  • Member countries share a common currency, the euro, which is managed by the European Central Bank (ECB)
• China's managed float system:
  • The Chinese renminbi (RMB) is loosely pegged to a basket of currencies, with the central bank intervening to maintain stability
• Argentina's currency board (1991-2002):
  • The Argentine peso was fixed at a one-to-one rate with the US dollar, backed by foreign currency reserves
  • The system ultimately collapsed due to economic imbalances and a lack of competitiveness
• The Swiss National Bank's (SNB) exchange rate ceiling (2011-2015):
  • The SNB set a minimum exchange rate of 1.20 Swiss francs per euro to prevent excessive appreciation of the franc
  • The policy was abandoned in 2015, leading to a sharp appreciation of the franc
• The Asian financial crisis (1997-1998):
  • Several Asian countries with pegged exchange rates (Thailand, Indonesia, South Korea) experienced speculative attacks and were forced to abandon their pegs
  • The crisis highlighted the risks of fixed exchange rates and the importance of sound macroeconomic policies

Policy Implications and Interventions

• Exchange rate policies can have significant impacts on a country's economic performance and global competitiveness
  • Overvalued currencies can lead to trade deficits and a loss of competitiveness, while undervalued currencies can boost exports but may cause inflation
• Central banks can intervene in foreign exchange markets to influence exchange rates
  • Interventions can be sterilized (offsetting the impact on the money supply) or unsterilized (allowing the money supply to change)
• Capital controls can be used to manage exchange rate volatility and prevent speculative attacks
  • Examples include taxes on short-term capital inflows (Chile) and restrictions on foreign currency borrowing (Malaysia)
• International coordination of exchange rate policies can help promote global economic stability
  • The Plaza Accord (1985) and Louvre Accord (1987) were agreements among major industrialized countries to manage exchange rates and reduce global imbalances
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) plays a role in monitoring exchange rate policies and providing support to countries in crisis
  • The IMF can provide loans and technical assistance to help countries manage their exchange rates and address economic imbalances

Connecting the Dots

• Exchange rate systems are closely linked to other aspects of international economics, such as trade, investment, and capital flows
  • Changes in exchange rates can affect the competitiveness of a country's exports and the attractiveness of its assets to foreign investors
• The choice of exchange rate system has implications for monetary policy and macroeconomic stability
  • Fixed exchange rates limit monetary policy autonomy, while floating rates allow for more flexibility in responding to economic shocks
• Global economic conditions and policies in major economies can have spillover effects on exchange rates and economic performance in other countries
  • The US dollar's role as a global reserve currency means that changes in US monetary policy can have significant impacts on global exchange rates and capital flows
• Exchange rate crises can have severe economic and social consequences, highlighting the importance of sound policies and risk management
  • The Asian financial crisis and the Argentine currency board collapse demonstrate the potential costs of unsustainable exchange rate policies
• Understanding exchange rate systems and their implications is crucial for policymakers, businesses, and investors operating in an increasingly interconnected global economy
  • Effective management of exchange rate risks and opportunities requires a deep understanding of the underlying economic forces and policy frameworks