23.3 Evolving relations with Russia
3 min read•august 9, 2024
Russia's relationship with Europe shifted dramatically after the . NATO and the EU sought cooperation, establishing councils and agreements to foster dialogue and economic ties. However, challenges arose as NATO expanded eastward and complicated matters.
Regional tensions simmered as persisted in post-Soviet states. Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014 marked a turning point, leading to sanctions and strained relations. The EU's initiative further complicated the geopolitical landscape.
Post-Cold War Cooperation
NATO-Russia Collaboration and Energy Politics
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- established in 2002 fostered dialogue and cooperation on security issues
- Council facilitated joint military exercises and counterterrorism efforts between NATO and Russia
- signed in 1997 promoted economic and political ties
- Agreement covered trade, investment, and cultural exchanges between EU member states and Russia
- Energy politics played crucial role in EU-Russia relations due to Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas
- pipeline project exemplified complex energy relationship between Russia and European countries
Challenges to Cooperation
- into former Soviet bloc countries strained relations with Russia
- Russia viewed NATO enlargement as threat to its security interests in
- Disagreements over in Europe created tensions between NATO and Russia
- Energy disputes, such as gas supply disruptions to Ukraine, affected EU-Russia relations
- Diverging views on global issues (, Iran nuclear deal) hindered cooperation efforts
- Economic sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia in 2014 further complicated bilateral relations
Regional Tensions
Frozen Conflicts and Russian Influence
- Frozen conflicts in post-Soviet states remained unresolved, contributing to regional instability
- in Moldova persisted since 1992, with Russian peacekeeping forces present
- South Ossetia and Abkhazia conflicts in Georgia escalated into 2008
- between Armenia and Azerbaijan periodically flared up despite ceasefires
- Russia's asserted influence over former Soviet republics
- Policy aimed to maintain Russian economic and political dominance in the region
- Russian support for separatist movements in neighboring countries (South Ossetia, Abkhazia) exemplified near abroad strategy
Crimea Annexation and Eastern Partnership
- Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, triggering international condemnation
- Annexation violated Ukraine's territorial integrity and international law
- Conflict in eastern Ukraine () erupted following
- Russian support for separatist forces in Donetsk and Luhansk prolonged the conflict
- EU's Eastern Partnership initiative launched in 2009 to strengthen ties with six post-Soviet states
- Initiative aimed to promote political and economic reforms in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine
- Russia viewed Eastern Partnership as attempt to diminish its influence in the region
Confrontational Policies
Sanctions Regime and Economic Impacts
- EU and US imposed economic sanctions on Russia following Crimea annexation
- Sanctions targeted key sectors of Russian economy (energy, finance, defense)
- Asset freezes and travel bans implemented against Russian officials and entities
- Russia responded with counter-sanctions, banning food imports from EU and US
- contributed to economic downturn in Russia and strained EU-Russia trade relations
- Debate over effectiveness of sanctions in changing Russian foreign policy persisted
Hybrid Warfare and Information Campaigns
- tactics employed by Russia combined conventional and unconventional methods
- on Estonian government websites in 2007 attributed to Russian hackers
- aimed to influence public opinion and political processes in Western countries
- Russian state-sponsored media outlets (RT, Sputnik) accused of spreading propaganda
- Alleged Russian interference in 2016 US presidential election heightened concerns about hybrid threats
- NATO and EU developed strategies to counter hybrid warfare and improve resilience
Putin's Russia and Assertive Foreign Policy
- 's leadership marked shift towards more assertive Russian foreign policy
- Putin's speech in 2007 signaled challenge to US-led global order
- Emphasis on restoring Russia's great power status and protecting Russian-speaking populations abroad
- Increased and defense spending under Putin's presidency
- Russia's intervention in Syrian civil war in 2015 demonstrated willingness to project power globally
- Tensions with the West escalated over issues such as NATO expansion, missile defense, and human rights
Key Terms to Review (25)
Cold War: The Cold War was a prolonged period of geopolitical tension between the Soviet Union and the United States, along with their respective allies, following World War II. This ideological conflict was marked by a struggle for global influence, characterized by military competition, nuclear arms races, and proxy wars rather than direct confrontation.
Crimea Annexation: The Crimea annexation refers to the 2014 incorporation of the Crimean Peninsula into the Russian Federation following a disputed referendum. This event significantly strained Russia's relations with Western nations and raised questions about international law, sovereignty, and regional stability in Eastern Europe.
Cyber attacks: Cyber attacks are malicious attempts to disrupt, damage, or gain unauthorized access to computer systems, networks, or devices. These attacks have become a significant concern in international relations, especially in the context of evolving dynamics with countries like Russia, where state-sponsored cyber warfare has raised alarms regarding national security and geopolitical stability.
Disinformation campaigns: Disinformation campaigns are coordinated efforts to spread false information with the intent to deceive and manipulate public opinion. These campaigns often utilize social media, news outlets, and other communication channels to distort facts and create confusion, particularly during times of political tension or conflict. In the context of evolving relations with Russia, disinformation campaigns have become a prominent tool used to influence perceptions and undermine trust in democratic institutions.
Donbas Region: The Donbas region is a coal-rich area in Eastern Ukraine, primarily encompassing the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. It has been a focal point of conflict between Ukraine and Russian-backed separatists since 2014, reflecting broader tensions in evolving relations between Ukraine and Russia.
Eastern Europe: Eastern Europe refers to a geographical and cultural region that encompasses countries such as Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and the Baltic states, as well as parts of former Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union. This region has been significantly shaped by its history of political shifts, economic challenges, and social changes, especially during and after the Cold War, impacting European politics, security alliances, and relations with Russia.
Eastern Partnership: The Eastern Partnership is a diplomatic initiative launched in 2009 by the European Union to deepen political and economic relations with six Eastern European partners: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. This program aims to foster closer ties and enhance cooperation in various fields such as trade, governance, and security, while also promoting democratic reforms and human rights.
Energy politics: Energy politics refers to the use and regulation of energy resources as a means of influencing international relations and achieving political objectives. This concept is significant in shaping relationships between countries, especially when considering energy-rich nations and their impact on global energy markets. In recent years, energy politics has increasingly become intertwined with issues of national security, economic stability, and environmental concerns, particularly regarding fossil fuels and renewable energy sources.
EU Sanctions: EU sanctions are restrictive measures imposed by the European Union to influence the behavior of a country, individual, or entity that poses a threat to international peace and security. These sanctions can take various forms, including economic sanctions, trade restrictions, asset freezes, and travel bans. They are often used as a tool of foreign policy to respond to violations of international law or human rights abuses, particularly in relation to evolving relations with Russia.
EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement: The EU-Russia Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) is a treaty established to promote political dialogue, economic cooperation, and cultural exchange between the European Union and Russia. Signed in 1994, it aimed to foster stable relations and mutual benefits while addressing issues like trade, security, and human rights, representing a significant step in evolving relations with Russia.
Frozen conflicts: Frozen conflicts are unresolved disputes between countries or regions that remain in a state of political and military stalemate without a formal peace treaty. These situations often involve territorial claims and ethnic tensions, where active fighting has ceased, but the underlying issues remain unaddressed. Such conflicts can significantly impact international relations, especially concerning the role of major powers like Russia in the post-Cold War context.
Hybrid warfare: Hybrid warfare is a military strategy that combines conventional and unconventional tactics, including the use of irregular forces, cyber attacks, and disinformation campaigns. This approach aims to exploit the vulnerabilities of an adversary while remaining ambiguous in its methods, making it challenging to identify and respond effectively. In the context of evolving relations with Russia, hybrid warfare has become increasingly relevant as Russia employs these tactics to achieve its geopolitical objectives without engaging in traditional warfare.
Military modernization: Military modernization refers to the process of transforming and updating a nation's armed forces through the adoption of new technologies, strategies, and organizational structures to enhance operational effectiveness and readiness. This concept is crucial in the context of evolving relations with Russia, as countries seek to respond to changing security dynamics and emerging threats.
Missile defense systems: Missile defense systems are military technologies designed to detect, track, intercept, and destroy incoming ballistic missiles before they reach their targets. These systems are crucial in modern warfare as they aim to protect nations from potential missile threats, especially in the context of evolving international relations and security strategies.
Munich Security Conference: The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is an annual gathering focused on international security policy, bringing together world leaders, diplomats, and experts to discuss pressing global security challenges. This conference has become a key platform for dialogue on issues like NATO relations, transatlantic security, and notably, evolving relations with Russia.
Nagorno-Karabakh Dispute: The Nagorno-Karabakh dispute is a territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population. This long-standing conflict has historical roots dating back to the early 20th century and has been marked by multiple wars, ceasefires, and ongoing tensions, significantly affecting relations between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia.
Nato expansion: NATO expansion refers to the process of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization extending its membership to include former Eastern Bloc countries and other nations in Central and Eastern Europe after the end of the Cold War. This expansion is significant as it symbolized the shifting geopolitical landscape of Europe, particularly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, and marked a new phase in relations with Russia, which perceived this move as a threat to its sphere of influence.
NATO-Russia Council: The NATO-Russia Council (NRC) is a diplomatic forum established in 2002 to facilitate cooperation and dialogue between NATO and Russia. It was designed to address security challenges and promote mutual understanding, particularly in light of NATO's expansion into Eastern Europe and Russia's evolving geopolitical role. The council serves as a platform for addressing issues like arms control, counter-terrorism, and regional stability.
Near abroad policy: Near abroad policy refers to the strategic approach adopted by Russia towards the countries that were once part of the Soviet Union, focusing on maintaining influence and control over these neighboring states. This policy is rooted in historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors, with Russia viewing these nations as part of its sphere of influence and vital for its security and national interests.
Nord Stream: Nord Stream is a major natural gas pipeline that runs under the Baltic Sea, directly connecting Russian gas supplies to Europe, specifically Germany. This project is significant in shaping Europe's energy security and its relations with Russia, as it allows for a direct supply of gas while bypassing transit countries in Eastern Europe, highlighting both economic interdependence and geopolitical tensions.
Russo-Georgian War: The Russo-Georgian War was a conflict fought between Russia and Georgia in August 2008, primarily over the breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This war marked a significant turning point in post-Soviet relations, as it highlighted Russia's willingness to use military force to maintain influence in its near abroad and signaled a deterioration in Georgia's aspirations for closer ties with NATO and the West.
Sanctions regime: A sanctions regime is a set of restrictive measures imposed by one or more countries against another country, organization, or individual to achieve foreign policy goals, such as maintaining international peace and security or promoting human rights. These measures can include economic sanctions, trade restrictions, and diplomatic isolation, which are often used in response to aggressive actions or violations of international law.
Syria Conflict: The Syria Conflict, which began in 2011, is a multi-faceted civil war involving various factions fighting for control over the country. It started as part of the Arab Spring protests against President Bashar al-Assad's regime but escalated into a complex war involving not just local groups but also regional and international powers, significantly impacting relations with Russia.
Transnistria Conflict: The Transnistria Conflict is a territorial and political dispute between Moldova and the breakaway region of Transnistria, which declared independence in 1990 but is not recognized by any United Nations member state. This conflict is a significant part of the broader evolving relations with Russia, as Moscow has supported Transnistria both politically and militarily, influencing the geopolitical landscape of Eastern Europe.
Vladimir Putin: Vladimir Putin is a Russian politician who has served as both President and Prime Minister of Russia, and is known for his significant influence on Russian politics since the late 1990s. His leadership has shaped Russia's domestic policies, foreign relations, and military engagements, impacting the dynamics of global politics, especially in relation to Western countries.